16th Census, Delimitation, and Women's Parliament Quota

04-11-2024

The Government of India is preparing to conduct the 16th Census, which was not carried out in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
An official announcement regarding the Census is yet to be made, but sources indicate that the exercise might begin in 2025.
This Census is crucial as it is linked to 2 significant outcomes:
1. Delimitation of Parliamentary constituencies, which has been on hold for the last five decades, and the
2. Implementation of women’s reservation in Parliament.

128th Constitutional Amendment: Passed in 2023, this amendment reserves 33% of seats in the Lok Sabha and State Assemblies for women.
Implementation link: Reservation is dependent on the delimitation process, i.e. it cannot come into effect until the constituencies are reorganised.

Historical context of Census in India :

Ancient Period:
1. Census activities trace back to the Maurya dynasty.
2. The earliest records indicate population counts during the Rigveda (800-600 BC).
Medieval Period:
1. The Arthashastra by Kautilya (3rd Century BC) emphasized the collection of population statistics for taxation policies.
2. The Ain-i-Akbari, compiled during Mughal emperor Akbar's reign, included extensive demographic data.
Pre-Independence Period:
1. Modern census history began in 1800 when England started its Census.
2. Initial attempts in India included:
  - 1824: Census in Allahabad and Banaras (1827-28) by James Prinsep.
  - 1830: First complete city census in Dacca (now Dhaka) by Henry Walter.
  - 1836-37: Second Census by Fort St. George.
  - 1849: Local governments ordered to conduct quinquennial population returns.
3. First Non-synchronous Census: Conducted in 1872 during Lord Mayo's governorship.
4. First Synchronous Census: Taken on February 17, 1881, under British rule by W.C. Plowden.

Census Continuity:

Continuous Conduct: Since 1881, India has consistently conducted decadal censuses despite challenges such as epidemics, wars, and unrest, with the 2021 Census being the only exception due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
2011 Census: This marked the 15th national census in India.
Pandemic Impact: While the pandemic was effectively over by 2022, the government delayed starting the Census to align it with delimitation processes.
A Census completed by 2026 might not allow for immediate delimitation.

Constitutional and Legal Framework:

The Census is mentioned in the Constitution of India under item 69 of the Union List, indicating that only the Central government can conduct it.
However, there are no explicit legal requirements in the Constitution or the Census of India Act of 1948 regarding the timing or frequency of the Census.

Nodal Ministry:

The Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, under the Ministry of Home Affairs, is responsible for conducting the decennial Census.
Until 1951, the Census Organization was formed on an ad-hoc basis for each Census.
The population census is classified as a Union subject under Article 246 of the Indian Constitution

Two-Step Census Procedure:

House-Listing and Numbering:
1. Conducted in the year preceding the Census, typically between April and September.
Population Enumeration:
1. Occurs in the Census year, usually between the 2nd and 4th weeks of February.
2. The final population numbers are recorded as of midnight on March 1 in the Census year.
3. Enumerators revisit households in the first week of March to adjust for any births and deaths during February.
Data Release Timeline:
- Preliminary results, especially population totals, are typically released within months of the enumeration.
- Full results usually take 1 to 2 years to be finalized.

How is the 16th census Linked to Delimitation ?

The delimitation of constituencies for the Lok Sabha and State Legislative Assemblies will be carried out based on the first Census after 2026.
The 2021 Census was originally postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequently due to delays from the Central government.

Current Status:

Suspension of Delimitation: The last delimitation exercise occurred in 2002 following the 2001 Census, which only involved redrawing existing boundaries without changing the number of constituencies.
84th Constitutional Amendment (2001): States that delimitation can only occur based on the Census conducted after 2026. Therefore, even if the 2021 Census had been completed on time, delimitation could only be conducted after the 2031 Census.
Population Growth Discrepancies: Varied growth rates across states mean that some states may lose representation while others gain.
Southern states argue that penalizing them for effective population control is unjust.

What is Delimitation?

Delimitation is the process of fixing the number of seats and boundaries of territorial constituencies in each State for the Lok Sabha and Legislative Assemblies.
It includes determining the seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) in these houses.
Delimitation Commission: This process is performed by the Delimitation Commission, established under an act of Parliament. Delimitation Commissions have been set up four times in India:
1. 1952: First delimitation exercise.
2. 1963: Second delimitation exercise.
3. 1973: Third delimitation exercise.
4. 2002: Fourth delimitation exercise under the Delimitation Act of 2002.
First Exercise: The first delimitation exercise was conducted by the President (with the help of the Election Commission) in 1950-51.

Historical Context

The last significant delimitation that changed the state-wise composition of the Lok Sabha was completed in 1976, based on the 1971 Census.
Constitutional Mandate: The Constitution of India mandates that the allocation of seats in the Lok Sabha should be based on the population of each state to ensure that the ratio of seats to population is as close to equal across all states.
This provision aims to ensure that each person's vote carries roughly the same weight, regardless of which state they live in.
42nd Amendment Act (1976): Frozen the allocation of seats in the Lok Sabha to the states and the division of each state into territorial constituencies until 2000, maintaining the 1971 levels.
84th Amendment Act (2001): Extended the freeze on readjustment until 2026. It also Empowered the government to undertake the readjustment and rationalization of territorial constituencies in the states based on the 1991 Census.
87th Amendment Act (2003): Provided for delimitation based on the 2001 Census, but did not alter the number of seats allotted to each state in the Lok Sabha.

Constitutional Provisions

Article 82: The Parliament must enact a Delimitation Act after every Census.
Article 170: States must also be divided into territorial constituencies as per the Delimitation Act after each Census.

Significance of Delimitation:

Representation: Ensures fair representation in the Lok Sabha and State Legislative Assemblies by adjusting the number of seats based on population changes. This is crucial for upholding the democratic principle of "one citizen-one vote-one value."
Equity: By readjusting the boundaries of territorial constituencies, delimitation aims to ensure an equitable distribution of seats among different regions, considering population shifts over time.
Reserved Seats for SC/ST: Delimitation determines the allocation of reserved seats for SC and ST in accordance with constitutional provisions, ensuring adequate political representation for marginalized communities.
Federalism: Delimitation impacts federal principles by influencing the distribution of political power among states. It is essential to balance population-based representation and federal considerations to maintain harmony among diverse regions.
Population Control Measures: Historically, the freezing of seats based on the 1971 Census aimed to incentivize population control measures. However, the impending delimitation raises questions about the effectiveness of this policy given changing demographics.

Concerns Related to Delimitation

Disparity in representation between the northern and southern parts of India in the Lok Sabha due to population as a deciding factor.
Solely population-based delimitation may disregard the progress made by southern states in population control, potentially leading to disparities in the federal structure. Southern states, despite having only 18% of the country's population, contribute 35% to the GDP.
After the 15th Finance Commission used the 2011 Census for recommendations, concerns arose about southern states losing funding and representation in Parliament. Previously, the 1971 Census was the basis for funding and tax devolution recommendations.
Scheduled delimitation may not only lead to a loss of seats for southern states but also increase power for political parties with bases in the north. This could shift power toward the north and away from the south, affecting the division of reserved seats for SCs and STs under Articles 330 and 332.

International Practices Related to Delimitation

United States:
1. The House of Representatives has been capped at 435 seats since 1913. After each Census, seats among states are redistributed using the method of equal proportion, with no significant gains or losses for most states. For example, the 2020 Census resulted in no change in the number of seats for 37 states.
European Union (EU):
1. The EU Parliament consists of 720 members, with seats divided among 27 member countries based on the principle of degressive proportionality. This means the ratio of population to seats increases with larger populations. For example, Denmark, with a population of around 6 million, has 15 seats (average of 400,000 per member), while Germany, with a population of 83 million, has 96 seats (average of 860,000 per member).

What is the Delimitation Commission?

The Commission is appointed by the President of India and collaborates with the Election Commission of India.
Composition:
1. A retired Supreme Court judge.
2. The Chief Election Commissioner.
3. The respective State Election Commissioners.
Functions:
1. To determine the number and boundaries of constituencies to make the population of all constituencies nearly equal.
2. To identify seats reserved for SC and ST where their population is relatively large.
Powers:
1. The Commission’s orders have the force of law and cannot be questioned in any court. In case of a difference of opinion among members, the majority opinion prevails.

Impact of Delay in Census 2021

Public Distribution System (PDS):
1. The National Food Security Act of 2013 states that 75% of rural residents are eligible for subsidized food grains through PDS.
2. Based on the 2011 Census, India had approximately 121 crore inhabitants, with PDS covering about 80 crore people.
3. Using projected population figures of 137 crore, more than 10 crore people would be denied subsidized food benefits, with significant gaps in Uttar Pradesh (2.8 crore) and Bihar (1.8 crore).
Migration Data:
1. The COVID-19 lockdowns highlighted inadequacies in current migration data from the 2011 Census, rendering it insufficient for understanding migration numbers, reasons, and patterns.
2. The migration data (D-tables) from the 2011 Census was released in 2019, making it outdated upon publication.
Welfare Schemes:
1. The government's plan to utilize SECC (Socio-Economic Caste Census) data for budget allocations faced hurdles.
2. Many welfare schemes do not use census data to identify beneficiaries, yet planning and execution depend heavily on it.
3. Disaggregated age and fertility indicators are crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of programs as demographics shift.

Caste Census Demand:

Expectation of Caste Data Collection: There is a growing demand for the upcoming Census to include caste data, which some political parties argue will eliminate the need for a separate caste census.
Historical Context:
1. Information related to caste was collected until the 1941 Census, but this practice was discontinued in independent India.
2. From the 1951 Census onward, only data on Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes has been consistently collected.