Southwest Monsoon 2025: Rainfall Likely to be Above Normal

Southwest Monsoon 2025: Rainfall Likely to be Above Normal

17-04-2025

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the 2025 southwest monsoon season (June–September) is expected to record above-normal rainfall, likely to be 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a margin of ±5%.

Understanding Long Period Average (LPA) of Rainfall

  1. LPA refers to the average rainfall received over a specific region during a defined period, usually calculated over a 30-year time frame.
  2. It is a standard climatological benchmark used by IMD to assess whether rainfall in a particular season is deficient, normal, or excess.
  3. The current LPA for the southwest monsoon season over India as a whole is based on the 30-year period from 1971 to 2020.
  4. This LPA value is 87 cm, representing the mean seasonal rainfall across the country during this reference period.
  5. Forecasts issued by IMD are generally expressed as a percentage of this LPA, making it a critical reference point in monsoon prediction.

Why LPA Matters?

  1. It helps in quantitatively categorizing rainfall patterns such as below normal, normal, or above normal.
  2. It serves as the foundation for agricultural planning, water resource management, and disaster preparedness.
  3. Accurate LPA-based predictions assist in mitigating monsoon-related risks like floods, droughts, and crop failures.

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