Drying Up the World’s Largest Lake: A Caspian Crisis

 

1. In February 2025, an 18th-century 28-meter wooden shipwreck was discovered off Mazandaran, Iran, due to receding water levels.
2. Ship believed to be part of a Russian-influenced merchant fleet, carrying botanical cargo like buckwheat.
3. This accidental find underscores the environmental breakdown shaping modern archaeology.
4. Caspian is World’s largest inland water body, bordering Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan.
5. It has supported trade, culture, biodiversity, and livelihoods for millennia.
6. Now, it’s a symbol of global environmental failure and the collision between climate change and industrialization.
    

Alarming Environmental Decline
 

1. The Caspian Sea’s water level has dropped by around 2 meters in the last 20 years.
2. In shallow regions like Kazakhstan, the shoreline has retreated by up to 18 kilometers.
3. Scientists warn that if current trends continue, the situation will worsen significantly by 2100.
4. The surface area of the sea could shrink by up to 34%.
5. Its depth may drop by as much as 18 meters, leaving vast coastal zones dry.
6. The main causes are:
   1. Climate change, which increases evaporation rates.
   2. Reduced flow from the Volga River, the sea’s largest freshwater source.
   3. Dams, reservoirs, and excessive water extraction along the Volga worsen the decline.
       

Oil Extraction and Environmental Damage
 

1. Tengiz Field: Located on the northeastern shore of the Caspian, in Kazakhstan.
2. The Tengiz oil field produced 699,000 barrels/day in 2024.
3. Output is expected to increase to 850,000 barrels/day by mid-2025.
4. Kashagan Field: A major offshore oil field, directly in the northern Caspian Sea.
5. The Kashagan offshore project has faced multiple environmental controversies, including gas leaks and poor safety practices.
6. Ironically resource rich oilfields in the vicinity of the Caspian sea contributes to the shrinking of Caspian sea
7. The Caspian seal population has declined by 95% over the last century.

1. Fewer than 70,000 seals remain today.
2. It is now classified as critically endangered.

8. Five out of six Caspian sturgeon species are also critically endangered, according to the IUCN.

1. 1. Only the Sterlet (Acipenser ruthenus) is not currently on the critical list.
       

Human Cost
 

1. Fishing communities face falling catches and collapsing livelihoods.
2. Towns like Atyrau and Mangystau suffer economic distress.
3. Health crises:
   1. Polluted air, water, and soil.
   2. Berezovka village: Residents suffer from hair loss, vision damage, cancer symptoms . It is linked to Karachaganak oil and gas emissions.
   3. 25 toxic chemicals detected; community demands relocation and compensation.
       

Governance & Legal Frameworks
 

1. Fragmented Management

1. The five littoral states of Caspian sea (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan) have no unified plan to manage the Caspian Sea.
2. Each country often acts in its own interest, leading to conflicting policies and poor coordination.

2. 2018 Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea

1. This agreement defined territorial boundaries and resource rights.
2. However, it does not include binding environmental rules.
3. There is no enforcement mechanism to prevent pollution or overuse.

3. Oil Contracts from the 1990s

1. Many oil and gas deals were signed when environmental concerns were minimal.
2. These contracts lack modern environmental safeguards.
3. Updating them is difficult, as they are tied to long-term economic interests.

4. Tehran Convention (2003)

1. It's the first legal environmental framework for the Caspian Sea.
2. It provides a strong foundation for cooperation.
3. But it suffers from poor implementation by member states
4. Non-Binding Protocols under the Convention:

• Oil Pollution Protocol: Offers guidelines, but countries are not legally required to act.
• Land-based Pollution Protocol: Identifies sources of pollution, but has no penalties for violations.
• Emergency Response Protocol: Encourages action during oil spills, but relies on voluntary cooperation.

 

Major rivers flowing into the Caspian Sea:
 

River	Origin	Countries Flowing Through	Contribution / Notes
Volga	Valdai Hills, Russia	Russia	Largest contributor (~80% of Caspian inflow); heavily dammed for hydroelectric use
Ural	Ural Mountains, Russia	Russia, Kazakhstan	Second major source; enters near Atyrau, Kazakhstan
Kura	Northeast Turkey	Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan	Important southwestern inflow; joined by Aras River before reaching Caspian
Terek	Caucasus Mountains	Georgia, Russia	Northern inflow; empties into Caspian in Dagestan region
Sulak	Caucasus Mountains	Russia	Short but significant; flows into Caspian near Makhachkala (Dagestan)
Atrek	Kopet Dag Mountains	Iran, Turkmenistan	Seasonal; often doesn’t reach Caspian due to agricultural diversion

 

Shrinking Seas and Inland Water Bodies
 

	Water Body	Location	Status	Main Causes	Key Effects
1️⃣	Aral Sea	Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan (Central Asia)	~90% area lost since 1960s	River diversion for Soviet-era irrigation (Amu Darya, Syr Darya)	Fishing collapse, toxic dust storms, public health crisis
2️⃣	Dead Sea	Jordan, Israel, Palestine	Losing ~1 meter water level/year	Overuse of Jordan River, mineral mining	Sinkholes, reduced tourism, Red Sea–Dead Sea Project (proposed)
3️⃣	Lake Chad	Chad, Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon (Africa)	Shrunk over 90% since 1960s	Climate change (drought), overuse for irrigation	Collapse of fishing/farming, conflict, migration
4️⃣	Great Salt Lake	Utah, USA	Record low in 2022	Climate change, water diversion for farming/cities	Toxic dust exposure, bird & brine shrimp threat
5️⃣	Lake Urmia	Iran	Lost 80% surface (some recent recovery)	Dams, irrigation, reduced rainfall	Economic collapse, salt storms, public health risks
6️⃣	Lake Poopó	Bolivia	Fully dried up in 2015	Climate change, water diversion for mining/agriculture	Total loss of livelihoods for fishing communities