Policy Paper: “Indian Agriculture to 2047”

Released by:        ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (ICAR-NIAP)
Focus:                  Transformation and future roadmap of India’s agri-food system

Structural Transformation in India’s Agri-food System

1. India transitioned from a food-deficit to a food-surplus nation, driven by the Green Revolution, input subsidies, and MSPs.
2. Agriculture’s contribution to national income fell from 43% to 18% over the decades.
3. In contrast, the workforce shares in agriculture declined more gradually from 74% to 46%.
4. Landholding patterns witnessed fragmentation, with marginal holdings (≤1 hectare) rising from 51% to 68%.
5. The average size of operational landholdings decreased significantly from 2.28 hectares to 1.08 hectares.
6. There has been a notable shift towards diversification within agriculture.
7. Animal husbandry now contributes 31% to agricultural GVA, while fisheries account for 7% as of 2022–23.

Key Challenges in Agri-food System Transformation

1. Agricultural land is shrinking due to rapid population growth, urban sprawl, and industrial development.
2. Fertilizer usage is unbalanced, impacted by skewed subsidy structures and regional inefficiencies.
3. Low nutrient use efficiency and excessive reliance on certain fertilizers aggravate the issue.
4. Groundwater resources are overexploited, and overall water use efficiency remains suboptimal.
5. Climate change has led to a 25% reduction in agricultural productivity growth, driven by extreme weather events.
6. Additional bottlenecks include underdeveloped markets, weak credit systems, and inefficient value chains.
7. Policy bias toward cereal crops has further limited diversification and resilience in the agri-food system.

Recommendations for a Sustainable Agri-food Future

1. Strengthen water management through rainwater harvesting, groundwater recharge, and expanded micro-irrigation.
2. Gradually phase out electricity subsidies to encourage efficient resource use.
3. Promote nano fertilizers to improve nutrient delivery and reduce environmental impact.
4. Encourage sustainable agricultural practices such as crop rotation and intercropping.
5. Increase public and private investment in agricultural research and development (R&D).
6. Upgrade market infrastructure and integrate efficient value chains for better price realization.
7. Reform agricultural pricing policies to support diversification and reduce cereal dependency.

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