Monsoon to be ‘above normal’, predicts IMD

India is likely to experience an “above normal” monsoon rainfall between June and September this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on April 15, in its long-range forecast, a year after the country recorded below normal rains in 2023.

1. Forecast put the overall volume of rainfall across the country to be at 106% of the long period average (LPA), with an error margin of 5%.

What is the Long Period Average (LPA) of Rainfall?

1. The Long Period Average (LPA) is a benchmark figure for rainfall.
2. It represents the average rainfall in a specific region over an extended period, usually 30 to 50 years.
3. Meteorologists, like those at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), use the LPA to compare current rainfall patterns and make predictions about future rainfall.

Why is the LPA important?

1. Rainfall amounts can fluctuate significantly across regions and from year to year.
2. The LPA helps smooth out these variations. It allows for more accurate weather forecasting, especially in the context of extreme weather events that are becoming more common due to climate change.

How the IMD uses the LPA

The IMD classifies India's rainfall into these categories based on percentages of the LPA:

1. Normal: Rainfall within 96-104% of the LPA.
2. Below Normal: Rainfall between 90-96% of the LPA.
3. Above Normal: Rainfall between 104-110% of the LPA.
4. Deficient: Rainfall less than 90% of the LPA.
5. Excess: Rainfall exceeding 110% of the LPA.

FAQs:

What is Monsoon?

A monsoon is a seasonal shift in wind patterns that brings significant changes in rainfall. This shift is caused by the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a region of low pressure where trade winds meet.

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