Economic Survey 2025 – A Guide to India’s Fiscal Roadmap

Overview

1. The Economic Survey 2025, released on January 31, 2025, serves as the government’s annual report card on India’s economic health.
2. Prepared by the Ministry of Finance, this document precedes the Union Budget (February 1, 2025)
3. It Acts as a bridge between economic realities and policy decisions, it shapes debates in Parliament and guides stakeholders—from policymakers to businesses—in understanding India’s economic trajectory.

Key Highlights

1. What is the Economic Survey?

1. An annual report analyzing India’s economic performance, covering GDP, inflation, employment, and fiscal deficit.
2. Purpose: To inform budgetary decisions, highlight challenges, and recommend growth strategies.

2. Structure:

1. Part A: Focuses on macroeconomic trends, fiscal policies, and sectoral performance (e.g., agriculture, manufacturing).
2. Part B: Addresses socio-economic challenges, including trade balances, foreign exchange reserves, and inclusive growth.

2. Became an independent document in 1964, evolving into a critical tool for economic policymaking.

Why Is It Released Before the Union Budget?

The pre-Budget release serves three key roles:

1. Contextual Foundation: Offers an evidence-based snapshot of the economy to guide Budget allocations.
2. Issue Identification: Flags challenges like inflation, unemployment, and fiscal gaps that require urgent attention.
3. Policy Direction: Recommends strategies for sustainable growth (e.g., boosting exports, managing deficits).

Preparation & Presentation

1. Prepared By: The Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs (Ministry of Finance), led by the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA).
2. Data Sources: Government departments (e.g., NSO), RBI, and international institutions like the IMF and World Bank.
3. Presentation:
   1. Date & Time: January 31, 2025; tabled in Lok Sabha at 12 PM and Rajya Sabha at 2 PM by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
   2. Access: Live-streamed on Sansad TV, PIB India, and official social media channels. Full text available on the India Budget website.

Key Metrics Analyzed

1. GDP Growth: Assesses overall economic output and sectoral contributions (e.g., services, manufacturing).
2. Inflation: Trends in food, fuel, and core inflation, impacting household budgets and RBI’s monetary policies.
3. Employment: Job creation rates, labor force participation, and gig economy trends.
4. Fiscal Deficit: Gap between government revenue and expenditure, influencing borrowing and public investments.

Why Does It Matter?

1. Informs the Budget: The Survey’s insights directly shape tax reforms, subsidies, and welfare schemes in the Union Budget.
2. Guides Stakeholders: Businesses use it to anticipate policy shifts, while investors gauge market opportunities.
3. Transparency: Offers citizens a clear picture of economic priorities, from climate resilience to digital infrastructure.

Challenges & Expectations for 2025

While the Survey is a robust analytical tool, its effectiveness depends on:

1. Data Accuracy: Timely and reliable data collection, especially in informal sectors.
2. Balanced Priorities: Addressing inflation control vs. growth stimulation.
3. Inclusivity: Ensuring policies benefit marginalized groups, including rural MSMEs and women workers.

What Did the Last Economic Survey Show? The Economic Survey projected that India would grow at the rate of 6.5 to 7% of real GDP growth due to the improving balance sheet of the country's private sector, the estimated increase in goods and services export, normal rainfall forecast by IMD, and structural reforms in the economy. On the Inflation front, the report said that India managed to keep retail inflation at 5.4% in FY24, the lowest since the Covid-19 pandemic period. However, the food inflation hit 7.5 per cent in FY24, compared to 3.8 per cent in FY22. The report also outlined the focus outlook for the year, with increasing oilseed production, improving pulses production, focusing on storage facility for vegetables, and price monitoring data for essential food items, among other things.

Conclusion

The Economic Survey 2025 underscores India’s commitment to evidence-based governance. By diagnosing economic strengths and vulnerabilities, it equips the government to craft a Budget that balances growth with stability. For citizens, it demystifies complex economic trends, fostering informed public discourse. As India navigates global headwinds and domestic aspirations, this document remains a cornerstone of democratic accountability and strategic planning.

 

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