Demographic Transition

Context:

• China announced recently that its population has decreased by 2 million people in 2023. This shows the Demographic Transition in China.

What is Demographic Transition?

1. Demographic transition is the shift from high birth and death rates to lower ones as a society develops, leading to changes in population growth.
2. Birth rate is the number of babies born in a place during a certain time, usually a year, for every 1,000 people. It helps us understand how fast a population is growing.
3. Death rate is the number of people who die in a place during a certain time, usually a year, for every 1,000 people. It helps us understand how healthy and safe a population is.

How does Demographic Transition take place?

1. The Theory given by Warren Thompson and Frank W. Notestein shows the following stages of demographic changes as a country undergoes economic and social development:

Stages	Birth Rate	Death Rate	Change in Population	Reasons
Stage 1	High	High	Stable or Slow increase	Healthcare is not very developed and Limited technology is available
Stage 2	High	Declining	Rapid increase	More jobs and factories are created (Industrialization). People and countries start investing in Healthcare, leading to fewer deaths. However, population control measures are not taken up, hence, the Birth rate continues to increase.
Stage 3	Declining	Declines but slowly	Slowly Increase	More people move to cities for better opportunities (Increased Urbanization). People getting a better education, and becoming smarter (Improved Education). Ideas about families changed, and people had fewer children (Changing Societal Norms).
Stage 4	Low	Low	Stable	Countries become very advanced with modern industries People can easily decide when to have children Education and Healthcare improves
Stage 5	Very low	Low	Declines	Very few babies are born and many people are getting older. Possible problems might happen, like not having enough workers or caregivers.

2. 

What has happened in the case of China?

1. China started the One Child Policy in 1979 to control its population. It meant that in cities, families could only have one child. If they had more, there were penalties.
2. It led to people preferring Male children over females creating a gender imbalance.
3. Also, more people in China got older, and there aren't as many younger people to take care of them.
4. In 2015, recognising the challenges, China relaxed the policy to a Two Child Policy and later a Three Child Policy in 2021  to encourage higher birth rates and address the ageing population issue.
5. The recent data has shown that the population has declined by 2 million people in 2023.

What is happening in India’s case?

Population of India	1.4 billion
India’s Share in the World’s Population	17.5%
Elderly Population	1991	2016		2036
	6.8%	9.2%		14.9% (Projected to increase)
Youth Population (15-29 years)	2021		2036
	27.2%		22.7% (Projected to decrease)
Average Age	India		China
	28 years		38 years
Variation in Population Change	Southern States (E.g. Kerala)		Northern States (E.g. Bihar)
	Already experiencing an ageing population		Predicted to increase until 2051

What is the notable aspect of India's population trend?

1. India’s High Young Population can bring a Demographic dividend.
2. "Demographic dividend" means a time when there are more people of working age in a country compared to dependents like children and the elderly.
3. This can be an advantage for the country as it may lead to economic growth and increased investments.
4. But there is a need to provide quality education, healthcare and skills to reap the benefits of the demographic dividend.

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