China's New Trilateral Moves in South Asia

Why in the News?

1. China held a trilateral meeting with Pakistan and Bangladesh in Kunming, China.
2. A similar meeting between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan was held in May 2025, aiming to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
3. China is trying to make Pakistan more important in South Asia again, especially as India becomes stronger and builds better ties with Afghanistan.
4. These trilaterals seem to be part of China’s plan to keep India busy with nearby problems while it pushes its own projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Chronology of the Events:

Year/Period	Event
1962	India-China war; start of China-Pakistan strategic alliance to counter India.
1965	Pakistan considers using East Pakistan, China, and Nepal to cut India off at Siliguri.
2016	Pakistan-backed terror attack in Uri; India responds with surgical strikes.
2019	Pulwama terror attack; India retaliates with Balakot air strikes.
2021	Taliban takeover in Afghanistan; shift in regional alignments.
2024 (end)	Pakistan’s loan from China crosses $29 billion.
April 2025	Pahalgam terror attack (Pakistan-sponsored).
May 2025	India launches Operation Sindoor in retaliation; China criticizes India's response.
May 2025	China-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral meeting.
June 2025	China-Pakistan-Bangladesh trilateral meeting held in Kunming.

What Are the Key Highlights?

1. Past and Present Strategies: In the 1960s, Pakistan and China tried to create alliances with countries like Nepal and East Pakistan to pressure India. Today, they are trying similar strategies with Afghanistan and Bangladesh.
2. China-Pakistan Friendship: China and Pakistan have been strong allies since the  India-China war, 1962. China supports Pakistan economically and militarily. Over 80% of Pakistan’s arms come from China, and Pakistan owes China more than $29 billion in loans.
3. India’s Response: India has replied strongly to past terror attacks in Uri, Pulwama, and now Pahalgam.
   1. India’s Diplomatic and Economic Measures:
      1. India is using its economic power and diplomacy to isolate Pakistan.
      2. Suspended the Indus Waters Treaty
      3. Halted bilateral trade
      4. Restricted Pakistani port access
      5. Targeted Pakistan’s military assets
   2. Handling China’s Military Provocations
      1. India surprised China with firm responses in:
         1. Doklam (2017)
         2. Galwan (2020)
         3. India also boosted cooperation with like-minded countries to check Chinese aggression.
4. Operation Sindoor: In May 2025, after a terror attack in Pahalgam, India responded strongly.
   1. China criticized India’s action and supported Pakistan’s demand for an investigation. During this operation, Pakistan used many Chinese-made weapons.
5. China’s Efforts in South Asia: China is trying to influence countries like the Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. However, many of these countries are still cooperating with India, especially when it comes to the economy.
6. India’s Smart Regional Diplomacy:
   1. India’s pragmatic approach slowed China’s regional influence:
      1. Maldives: President Muizzu shifted back towards India despite the initial anti-India stance.
      2. Nepal: BRI progress is slow due to funding issues.
      3. Sri Lanka: President Anura Dissanayake respected India and visited India before China.
      4. Bangladesh: Despite tensions, India didn’t block regional energy cooperation.
7. Pakistan’s New Role: With support from China, Pakistan is trying to become important again by engaging more with Afghanistan and Bangladesh. These moves could increase terror threats and make South Asia more unstable.

What are the Challenges and Way Forward?

Challenges	Way Forward
1. China’s strategic encirclement through trilateral meetings	Strengthen regional alliances like BIMSTEC, IORA, and boost defense ties with key neighbors
2. Pakistan’s renewed role with Chinese backing in South Asia	Continue diplomatic isolation of Pakistan and expose its terror links globally
3. Growing Chinese economic influence via CPEC and BRI	Promote India’s own infrastructure initiatives like IMEC and offer credible alternatives to BRI
4. Strained India-Bangladesh ties exploited by China	Address bilateral concerns with Bangladesh through dialogue, trade, and energy cooperation
5. Risk of increased terror and military pressure in Kashmir and beyond	Enhance border security, intelligence sharing, and adopt a zero-tolerance policy towards terrorism
6. Weakening of India-led regional forums (e.g., SAARC)	Reinvigorate regional groupings with inclusive development agendas and faster project delivery

Conclusion

The regional picture is changing fast. China's trilateral meetings are part of a bigger plan to shape South Asia in its favour. India must remain calm, confident, and strategic. It should focus on strengthening its economy, building strong partnerships, and protecting its national interests. A peaceful and strong South Asia depends on cooperation, not conflict.

 

Ensure IAS Mains Question Q. China’s trilateral diplomacy with Pakistan and other South Asian countries poses new strategic and diplomatic challenges for India. Critically examine the implications of these developments on India’s regional leadership. Suggest a balanced strategy to safeguard India’s interests. (250 words)

 

Ensure IAS Prelim MCQs Q. Consider the following statements with respect to China’s trilateral meetings in South Asia: China held trilateral meetings with Pakistan and Bangladesh in June 2025 to deepen regional cooperation. The China-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral meeting in May 2025 aimed to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). These meetings are part of China’s strategy to counter India’s growing influence in South Asia. How many of the above statements are correct? (A) Only one (B) Only two (C) All three (D) None Ans: C Explanation: Statement 1 is correct: China held a trilateral meeting with Pakistan and Bangladesh in Kunming in June 2025 to deepen cooperation. Statement 2 is correct: The China-Pakistan-Afghanistan meeting in May 2025 aimed to extend CPEC. Statement 3 is correct: These meetings are part of China’s broader strategy to counter India’s influence in South Asia, particularly as India strengthens ties with Afghanistan and faces challenges with Bangladesh.